【深度解读】中国学者解读美国贸易代表戴琪最新讲话：中美关系走向“再挂钩”？
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北京大学社会科学部副部长、国际关系学院长聘正教授、中外人文交流研究基地执行主任王栋今年4月曾在Foreign Affairs （《外交事务》）上发表文章“The Case for a New Engagement Consensus：A Chinese Vision of Global Order”（《新接触共识：全球秩序的中国愿景》）（点击链接查看文章全文）。王栋教授认为，华盛顿和北京应该考虑按照互惠的原则将其经济“再挂钩”（recoupling），而不是追求经济脱钩（decoupling），并提出第一阶段贸易协定可以作为中美寻求重建健康稳定经贸关系的基础。
此前，在接受凤凰网《风向》采访时，北京大学美国研究中心主任、国际关系学院教授、中外人文交流研究基地学术委员王勇表示：中国不要“新冷战”，而是希望和美国维持可以稳定的、可以合作的关系，毕竟中美之间有那么多共同的利益。......我们是反对“脱钩”，我们甚至主张要再挂钩。
在演讲之后的对话环节中，戴琪提到中美贸应“再挂钩”(recoupling)，强调了脱钩对全球经济来说不会是一个现实的结果。
戴琪（Katherine Tai）发表讲话
访谈环节
“
Mr. Reinsch：Is decoupling of supply chains with China a Biden administration priority?
Amb. Tai：I know there’s a lot of talk about decoupling. I think at the end of the day I still don’t have, necessarily, good understanding of what everybody means, if we’ve got a common definition of decoupling. I think that the concern, maybe the question is whether or not the United States and China need to stop trading with each other. I don’t think that’s a realistic outcome in terms of our global economy. I think that the issue perhaps is, what are the goals we’re looking for in a kind of re-coupling? How can we have a trade relationship with China where we are occupying strong and robust positions within the supply chain and that there is a trade that’s happening as opposed to a dependency?
中国学者解读
屠新泉
中国对外经济贸易大学WTO研究院院长
北京大学中外人文交流研究基地学术委员
王勇
北京大学美国研究中心主任
国际关系学院教授
中外人文交流研究基地学术委员
针对戴琪的发言，中国学者也提出了他们的看法。中国对外经济贸易大学WTO研究院院长、北京大学中外人文交流研究基地学术委员屠新泉，北京大学美国研究中心主任、国际关系学院教授、中外人文交流研究基地学术委员王勇受邀出席CSIS的学者讨论会议，就戴琪最新演讲和未来中美经贸关系展开讨论。
两位中国学者都比较正面地看待戴琪的演讲。
屠新泉说，戴琪谈到“持久共存”和“再挂钩”，基本上是积极的；针对性关税排除程序，如果能很快开始，对双方都是好事。王勇指出，戴琪认识到中美经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性，符合两国人民的共同利益；戴琪没有要求展开贸易战或“脱钩”，而是提到“再挂钩”；她也有意与中方进行对话，以解决分歧。
关于戴琪说所有选项都是可能的，如果谈判不能取得预期进展，仍可能对华祭出301条款，屠新泉指出，双方的谈判是重要的，但必须有标准，那就是基于多边规则。如果双方谈判未果，就重新祭出301条款，与世贸组织规则不符。对于中美这两个强大的经济体而言，遵守规则尤其重要，这样双方才能更好地处理分歧。
屠新泉表示，国有经济固然是分歧点，但国有经济现在不仅在中国，在美国也越来越重要。不应当“妖魔化”国有经济，尤其是在新冠疫情当中，国有体制发挥了很大的作用。就产业政策而言，拜登政府也在加强国家的作用，比如美国最近推出半导体产业政策，国家色彩也很浓。改革世贸组织，需要多边讨论，而不是想施加单边意志。
王勇指出，谈第一阶段经贸协议的实施，不能不考虑疫情的巨大影响，这个协议本身也存在不公平性。未来要求中方进一步增加采购的做法，不应当延续，因为这违反WTO协议和自由贸易原则，是政府对于贸易的赤裸裸干预。美方应当从两败俱伤的贸易战中吸取教训。
王勇表示，由于双方的制度、文化、历史的不同，两国在经济治理模式上出现不同是正常的。双方应当依据世贸组织规则，而不是单边的规则，通过坦诚、开放的对话，寻求分歧的解决。很重要的是经贸问题的“去政治化”、“去安全化”。
王勇指出，即便在贸易战和新冠疫情期间，中方还是单方面宣布了一些市场开放措施，与欧盟达成投资协议，最近又申请加入CPTPP，这些说明中方是愿意继续改革开放的，相信中方会有新的政治文件对此进行再重申。
对于下一阶段中美经贸关系的走向，王勇表示谨慎乐观。他预期两国领导人和政府会有更多的高层互动。两国元首通话气氛积极，孟晚舟案的解决，以及媒体最新报道杨洁篪与沙利文可能在瑞士会面等，展示了积极的势头，双方高层对话增加不出人意料。双方应当利用这些机会，恢复双方的战略对话，以及讨论宏观经济政策和商贸关系的高层对话。
屠新泉希望双方能够务实解决关税问题，办法就是加速排除程序。他说，中方关注的是总体氛围的改善，两国元首通话已经为两国政府部门进行具体工作奠定了基础，双方可以同时加速关税排除程序。
以下为戴琪发言节选
Hello, everyone. Thank you for being here. I want to thank John Hamre, Bill Reinsch, andthe Center for Strategic & International Studies for hosting me today. CSIS plays a vital role in our foreign policy discourse. It is fitting that I am here speaking to you about one of the most important global issues.
I have said this before and I will continue to say it: the U.S.-China trade and economic relationship is one of profound consequence. As the two largest economies in the world, how we relate to each other does not just affect our two countries. It impacts the entire world and billions of workers.
This bilateral relationship is complex and competitive. President Biden welcomes that competition to support American workers, grow our economy, and create jobs at home.
He believes we need to manage the competition responsibly – and ensure that it is fair.
We have a lot of work to do.
To be successful, we must be direct and honest about the challenges we face and the grave risk from leaving the munaddressed. We must explore all options to chart the most effective path forward.
When it comes to our relationship with China, what’s best for American workers is growing the American economy to create more opportunity and more jobs with better wages here in the United States.
As the United States Trade Representative,I intend to deliver on President Biden’s vision for a worker-centered trade policy in the U.S.-China trade dynamic. We need to show that trade policy can be a force for good in the lives of everyday people.
We will create durable trade policy that benefits a broad range of stakeholders by rebuilding trust with our workers and aligning our domestic and foreign policies.
President Biden has been clear: the key to our global competitiveness and creating shared prosperity begins at home. We have to make smart domestic investments to increase our own competitiveness. We must invest in research and development and clean energy technology, strengthen our manufacturing base, and incentivize companies to Buy American up and down the supply chain.
We already accomplished some of that work with the American Rescue Plan, the Administration’s focus on supply chain resilience, and our investments in our technological leadership. The Administration is working closely with Congress to build on those actions with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal and the Build Back Better agenda.
In terms of U.S.-China trade, in recentmonths, the Biden-Harris Administration has conducted a comprehensive review.
And today, I will lay out the starting point of our Administration’s strategic vision for realigning our trade policies towards China to defend the interests of America’s workers, businesses, farmers and producers, and strengthen our middle class.
First, we will discuss with China its performance under the Phase One Agreement. China made commitments that benefit certain American industries,including agriculture, that we must enforce.
President Biden will continue to promote our economic interests – and build confidence for American industry.
Second, we will start a targeted tariff exclusion process. We will ensure thatthe existing enforcement structure optimally serves our economic interests. We will keep open thepotential for additional exclusion processes, as warranted.
Third, we continue to have serious concerns with China’s state-centered and non-market trade practices that were not addressed in the Phase One deal. As we work to enforce the terms of Phase One, we will raise these broader policy concerns with Beijing.
And we will use the full range of tools we have and develop new tools as needed to defend American economic interests from harmful policies and practices.
Finally and critically, we will continue to work with allies to shape the rules for fair trade in the 21st century, and facilitate a race to the top for market economies and democracies.
Before I get into further details around our plans, I would like to reflect on how the U.S.-China trade relationship has evolved in recent decades – and how we got to where we are today.
From the late 1970s to mid-1980s, China went from the world’s eleventh-largest economy to the eighth-largest. U.S. exports to China increased approximately four-fold, while imports grew 14 times in less than 10 years.
This economic growth set the stage for China’s efforts to join the WTO.
The world faced an important challenge at that time: how to integrate a state-led economy into a trade institution created by those dedicated to open, market-oriented principles.
In grappling with this dilemma, some believed there would be huge boosts in industrial and agricultural exports to China and its growing middle class. Others argued that accelerated and massive job losses would result.
In the end, China officially joined the WTO in December 2001.
Over the next decade and a half, the United States pursued a dual-track approach with Beijing.
One track involved annual high-level dialogues between U.S. and Chinese officials over three successive presidential administrations. These talks were intended to push China towards complying with and internalizing WTO rules and norms, and making other market-oriented changes.
The other track focused on dispute settlement cases at the WTO. We brought 27 cases against China, including some I litigated myself, and through collaboration with our allies. We secured victories in every case that was decided.
Faced with the reality that neither the dialogue nor the enforcement tracks were producing meaningful changes, the previous administration decided to use a different paradigm – unilateral U.S.pressure – to try to change Beijing’s practices.
It launched an investigation focused on China’s forced IP and technology transfer policies – longstanding and serious problems. This led to substantial U.S.tariffs on imports from China – and retaliation by China. Against this backdrop of rising tensions, in January 2020, the previous administration and China agreed to what is commonlyreferred to as the “Phase One Agreement.”
This agreement includes a limited set of commitments. These cover China’s obligations regarding intellectual property and technology transfer, purchases of American products, and improved market access for the agriculture and financial services sectors.
It has stabilized the market, especiallyfor U.S. agricultural exports. But our analysis indicates that while commitments in certain areas have been met, and certain business interests have seen benefits, there have been shortfalls in others.
But the reality is, this agreement did not meaningfully address the fundamental concerns that we have with China’s trade practices and their harmful impacts on the U.S. economy.
Let’s look at the steel industry. In 2000, there were more than 100 U.S. steelcompanies. We produced 100 millionmetric tons of steel annually and the industry employed 136,000 people in communities across the country.
Soon after, China started building its own steel plants. Its production capacity ballooned, depriving U.S. steel companies of valuable marketo pportunities. Low priced Chinese steel flooded the global market, driving out businesses in the United States and around the world.
Every steel plant that shuttered left hundreds of workers without livelihoods. It also left communities reeling, as small businesses dependent on plants also closed their doors and blighted buildings brought down real estate values.
That is why we need to take a new, holistic, and pragmatic approach in our relationship with China that can actually further our strategic and economic objectives – for the near-term and the long-term.
As our economic relationship with China evolves, so too must our tactics to defend our interests. As the years go by, the stakes keep getting higher and boosting American competitiveness becomes all the more important.
Our strategy must address these concerns,while also being flexible and agile to confront future challenges from China that may arise.
So how do we accomplish this?
Unlike the past, this administration will engage from a position of strength because we are investing in our workers and our infrastructure.
Repairing our roads and bridges, modernizing our ports, and delivering expanded broadb and are the kinds of investments that will begin to give American workers and businesses the boost needed to embrace their global competitiveness.
And we must harness and leverage the talent of our people by investing in education and worker training – investments that are included in the President’s Build Back Better plan. We also need tore-double our own efforts to be the most innovative country in the world by researching, developing, and creating new and emerging technology.
China and other countries have been investing in their infrastructure for decades. If we are going to compete in the global market, we need to make equalor greater investments here at home.
That continuous investment ensures we can maintain our competitive edge throughout the 21st century.
Beyond our domestic investments, in the coming days, I intend to have frank conversations with my counterpart in China.
That will include discussion over China’sperformance under the Phase One Agreement.
And we will also directly engage with China on its industrial policies. Our objective is not to inflame trade tensions withChina.
Durable coexistence requires accountabilityand respect for the enormous consequences of our actions. I am committed to working through the manychallenges ahead in this bilateral process in order to deliver meaningfulresults.
But above all else, we must defend – to the hilt – our economic interests.
That means taking all steps necessary to protect ourselves against the waves of damage inflicted over the years through unfair competition. We need to be prepared to deploy all tools and explore the development of new ones, including through collaboration with other economies and countries. And we must chart a new course to change the trajectory of our bilateral trade dynamic.
And vitally, we will work closely with our allies and like-minded partners towards building truly fair international tradethat enables healthy competition.
I have been working to strengthen our alliances through bilateral, regional, and multilateral engagement. And I will continue to do so.
The agreements we reached in June with the EU and the UK to resolve the large civil aircraft disputes at the WTO demonstrate President Biden’s commitment to work with our partners to create amore level playing field for our workers.
Just last week, I co-chaired the firstmeeting of the U.S.-E.U. Trade and Technology Council. As Europe strengthens its own defenses against non-market practices, we will work with them to ensure that ourcollective policies deliver.
In the G7, G20, and at the WTO, we arediscussing market distortions and other unfair trade practices, such as the useof forced labor in the fisheries sector, and in global supply chains, including in X jiang.
In the coming months and years, we willbuild off of this work.
Our goal is to bring deliberative, stable,long-term thinking to our approach – and to work through bilateral and multilateral channels. The core of ourstrategy is a commitment to ensuring we work with our allies to create fair andopen markets.
There is a future in which all of us in the global economy can grow and succeed – where prosperity is inclusive within our own borders and across those borders too.
The path we have been on did not take us there. President Biden’s priorities that I’ve laid out today are aimed at achieving a shared prosperity that is good forour workers, producers, and businesses; good for our allies; and good for the global economy.
Thank you.
文章来源：中评社、CSIS
文章排版：李知之
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